By ScienceAstronomy| Source

Something extraordinary is unfolding high above the Arctic. A powerful sudden stratosphericwarming (SSW) event is forecast for early February 2026, an atmospheric upheaval that could unlock intense, widespread cold for weeks across North America and Europe.

The polar vortex, a fast-moving ring of winds, normally circles the poles in winter, keeping frigid air contained. But when it weakens or collapses, this natural barrier fails, allowing cold air to spill dramatically southward and disrupt weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.

Current high-resolution models reveal the polar vortex deforming and splitting. Pressure and temperature are rapidly rising in the stratosphere, more than 18 miles (30 km) above the surface. This intense warming is actively pushing against the vortex’s structure, causing it to break apart. By early February, stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic could be over 90 °F (50 °C) warmer than normal.

What happens in the upper atmosphere has significant consequences down here. Historically, events like this lead to severe cold air surges into the eastern United States and deep into Europe. Forecasts are already indicating a powerful corridor of Arctic air pushing from central Canada through much of the U.S., with potential for widespread cold snaps extending into mid-February.

Timing is crucial. Surface impacts typically lag behind these stratospheric changes by several days to weeks. While not every SSW guarantees a deep freeze, a full vortex collapse often does. Stay informed as this unprecedented event unfolds.