By Visegrad | Source

The Telegraph writes that the leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will meet in Cardiff tomorrow to sign a deal on starting cooperation in breaking up the UK.

They will demand the right to an independence referendum, or in the case of Northern Ireland, on the right to become part of Ireland.

After Plaid Cymru routed Labour in the last Welsh election, separatist parties are now for the first time in power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland at the same time.

The three first ministers will also meet in Cardiff with Mary Louise McDonald, the President of Sinn Féin and leader of the opposition in Ireland.

The new drive for independence referendums comes after UK PM Andy Burnham spoke about what’s needed for a new independence referendum in Scotland, and made a parallel to the Good Friday Agreement mechanism in Ireland, which requires the UK government to consider a referendum in Northern Ireland if public opinion clearly changes.

Previous UK PMs had completely shut the door on a new independence referendum in Scotland, saying that the failed independence referendum in 2014 had closed that issue for decades.

If Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland were to leave the United Kingdom, leaving only England, the remaining country’s population would decrease by 15.5% and its GDP would decrease by 13.5% compared to the current total United Kingdom figures.

It would also create a number of geopolitical and geoeconomic dilemmas:

1. London would lose the physical home of the UK’s independent nuclear deterrent.  The UK’s entire fleet of nuclear-armed submarines is permanently stationed at HM Naval Base Clyde on Scotland’s west coast.  There are no alternative deep-water ports in England that are geographically, politically or logistically suited to house nuclear submarines and their warheads within the foreseeable future.
2. Losing control of the GIUK Gap.  Geographically, Scotland provides the UK with naval and aerial positioning to guard the North Atlantic and the so-called GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom).  It’s a vital maritime choke point for tracking Russian submarine activity entering the Atlantic Ocean from northern Russia.
3. Destruction of the Defense Training Estate.  The British Armed Forces require vast expanses of uninhabited land for live-fire combat training.  England is too densely populated to accommodate this scale of preparation and the Ministry of Defence relies heavily on the Scottish Highlands, the Sennybridge Training Area in Wales, and the Abercorn facilities in Northern Ireland for multi-domain military training exercises.
4. Loss of North Sea oil and gas.  An independent Scotland would get ownership over the vast majority of the current UK’s northern waters, with England losing direct geopolitical control over the bulk of the North Sea oil and gas reserves, as well as massive offshore wind-generation territories located in Scottish and Welsh waters.
5. The emergence of a new “Western Flank.”  For over a century, the UK has operated under the assumption that its western border is entirely secure.  If Northern Ireland reunifies with the Republic of Ireland, and Scotland and Wales depart, the Irish Sea becomes entirely surrounded by foreign nations.  While a unified Ireland or independent Scotland would likely friendly Western democracies, they might opt for strict military neutrality (similar to Ireland’s current geopolitical stance) rather than joining NATO.  This would create a massive security vacuum right on England’s doorstep and would require London to reconfigure its military defense plans.